VALMAS will apply an ensemble of coarse-to-high resolution state-of-the-art models, integrating multisource data to examine biogeochemical, connectivity, biodiversity, carbon, fisheries, and contaminant impacts across a common set of co-designed climate, sector, and policy response scenarios. The model ensemble will share common forcing and inputs to ensure complementary perspectives of MAS impacts.

  • The coupled FVCOM (hydrodynamics) and ERSEM (biogeochemistry and lower trophic levels) will simulate MAS impacts at high spatial resolution, providing inputs to the rest of the ensemble.
  • MIZER, a size-spectrum fish community model, will provide detailed spatial information on the impacts on biomass and its distribution.
  • Particle tracking model PyLag will be employed within the ‘everything everywhere’ framework to model changes in MAS connectivity.
  • Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) will provide spatiotemporal modelling of ecosystem dynamics at the regional and whole North Sea scale, incorporating contaminant data into the food web using EwE’s Ecotracer routine, and inputting to WP5 for assessment of the value chain and socioeconomic implications of different policies.
  • StrathE2E will simulate whole-system dynamics in response to multiple drivers at the regional North Sea scale, and output measures of ecosystem services, ecosystem and fisheries states.

Model ensemble incorporating MAS effects